The sports betting world — well, at least those who reside in the Northeast Corridor of the United States — is anxiously waiting for the Supreme Court’s decision in Christie v. National Collegiate Athletic Association, the case pitting the NCAA and North America’s professional sports leagues (MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA) against New Jersey in the state’s quest to legalize sports betting.
At the heart of the case is The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA), which prevented states from authorizing or licensing sports betting.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments for the case on Dec. 4, 2017, with a majority of legal minds and sports-betting experts agreeing that the highest court in the land appears poised to rule in favor of New Jersey. The potential dates for the ruling are March 5, April 2, April 30, May 14, May 21, May 29, June 4, June 11, June 18 and June 29.
The online sportsbook BetDSI even went so far as to post betting lines on both the ruling (a New Jersey win was priced at -145, indicating that’s the favored outcome) and the date the ruling is most likely to come down (March 5 was the odds-on favorite at +100, or even money).
A ruling, however, isn’t as simple as a win or a loss for New Jersey. Here are the 3 most likely outcomes:
1. The Supreme Court strikes down PASPA, marking a win for both New Jersey AND potentially many other states
In this scenario, the Supreme Court would rule that PASPA represents an unreasonable infringement on states’ rights and therefore stands in violation of the 10th Amendment, which grants to the states “all powers not delegated to the [federal government].”
A strikedown of PASPA would represent a decisive win for New Jersey, in addition to any other states that have designs on implementing sports betting. And that list is lengthy, with as many as 18 states anticipating this eventuality by preparing to introduce their own sports betting bills this year.
2. The Supreme Court upholds PASPA, but rules that New Jersey’s sports betting law complies with federal law
This would represent a much narrower ruling, but nonetheless a victory for New Jersey in that the Supreme Court would hold that the sports-betting law Gov. Chris Christie signed in 2014 does not violate PASPA.
In this scenario, however, New Jersey would be essentially granted a monopoly on sports betting in the Northeast, as other states — including neighboring Pennsylvania and Delaware — that have lined up behind New Jersey in expectation of PASPA being struck down would not be allowed to move forward with their own sports betting bills.
3. The Supreme Court upholds the rulings of lower courts and affirms the constitutionality of PASPA
This ruling would indicate that the Supreme Court does not see the merits in New Jersey’s case and would be effectively keeping with the status quo. This is perceived as the least likely outcome both due to the tenor of the oral arguments as well as the fact that the Supreme Court only agrees to hear a fraction of cases annually, with the prevailing sentiment being that New Jersey’s case would not have been heard if they believed it was devoid of merits.